Strategy is always a bet

The longing is great. The desire for a clear and accessible path that leads us safely to our destination. A path that can withstand even the worst questions and challenges. After all, we want to reach our destination.

Perhaps you know this.

It's a topic that is played out again and again. The desire for one strategy or even several. The desire to minimize risk. The desire for as little effort as possible to achieve a goal. The desire to keep changes to a minimum.

But if you want to achieve a goal, there are two possibilities. Either you have everything you need and just need to focus accordingly. Or you have to acquire or learn the skills first.

In both cases, you have to deal with uncertainty. In both cases, you are making assumptions in your approach. In both cases, you are dealing with a future over which you have only limited control.

And these assumptions make the strategy a bet. The bet is that the assumptions will come true and that you have not overlooked anything significant. But the assumptions also mean risk.

Is there an alternative?

To do nothing? Here, too, you have implicit assumptions. The assumption that continuation will lead to an optimal result. Life shows that this is often not the case. You make yourself vulnerable when others recognize this and think of a better way to reach your goal.

In other words, it won't work without betting. Which bets you want to make and how they are supported by your colleagues and employees is part of the art of leadership.

My approach for finding a strategy:

1. Take the pulse: Is there a desire, an urge for a new strategy among employees? What observations, ideas or questions are there?

2. Interviews: What changes are there? What new opportunities are there? What can be built on? What strengths have been demonstrated in past successes? And what stories are being told?

3. Search for the most important addressable challenge or new opportunity that will move the organization forward. Decide on the focus.

4. Set up an actionable plan with milestones for the next 12-36 months, backlight assumptions, align with capabilities, challenge the plan, iterate if necessary.

5. Shaping the change story. Derive from past successes and the new circumstances.

Although, it looks like a lot to think about, it can be done rapidly within a few days. This is why I call it Strategy in three days. It works also at your organisation.